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US administration's smash and grab of TikTok will not be taken lying down

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　　After vowing to ban the popular short-video sharing app TikTok in the United States on Friday, the White House is reportedly weighing the advantages of allowing Microsoft to purchase its US operations.

　　Such shilly-shallying is a tactic the US administration employed during the trade deal negotiations with China.

　　The tactic involves the White House promising punishment for some perceived wrongdoing, followed by indications from other administration officials that the punishment might not be forthcoming. This is followed soon after by some close to the president saying that he intends to make good on his threat, sparking a sharp rise in tensions again. All with the aim of getting what the US administration wants.

　　So it was par for the course that after the ban on TikTok was proposed and then left hanging, that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the media on Sunday morning that the president "will take action in the coming days with respect to a broad array of national security risks that are presented by software connected to the Chinese Communist Party".

　　Although it is yet to be known how that will work, the message will certainly heighten the concerns of Chinese companies.

　　As TikTok's experience shows, no matter how unfounded the claims against them are, as long as they remain Chinese companies, they will be presented as being a "Red threat" by the administration. That being said, selling its US operations to Microsoft might be preferable for ByteDance, Tik-Tok's parent company in China, as it is working "for the best outcome". And that being the case, the top US diplomat's comments on Sunday were tantamount to inviting potential US purchasers to participate in an officially sanctioned "steal" of Chinese technology.

　　Washington is well aware that Beijing will be cautious about retaliating like-for-like as it values foreign investment in China, and the sizable US investment in China is of more importance to the Chinese economy than the much smaller and shrinking Chinese investment is to the US economy.

　　Also, there is the additional bonus that coercing Chinese companies to divest their US business to US enterprises will not incur job losses.

　　The US administration's bullying of Chinese tech companies stems from data being the new source of wealth and its zero-sum vision of "American first". With competitiveness now dependent on the ability to collect and use data, it offers an either-or choice of submission or mortal combat in the tech realm. There are no carrots to promote cooperation only sticks.

　　But China will by no means accept the "theft" of a Chinese technology company, and it has plenty of ways to respond if the administration carries out its planned smash and grab.

　　譯文：

　　美國政府必會為圍獵TikTok付出應有代價

　　周五，白宮宣稱要在美國禁掉字節跳動公司旗下的短視頻平臺TikTok。此后，又有報道稱白宮正在考慮讓微軟公司收購TikTok的美國業務。

　　美國政府與中國的貿易談判時就經常玩這種反復無常的把戲。

　　要演好這套劇本，白宮要先登臺，義正詞嚴地聲稱“罰單”已箭在弦上，然后一些官員會跳出來表態說，一切尚有暫緩執行的可能。但緊接著立刻要有美國總統所謂的幾個“身邊人”再跳出來放風說，最高決策者已決意采取行動。緊張態勢隨之再次升級。如此折騰只為美國政府的一己之私。

　　因此，可以預見的是，在白宮宣稱要禁掉TikTok但按兵不動之后，必然會有如美國國務卿邁克?蓬佩奧之流跳將出來。果不其然，蓬佩奧周日一早就對媒體說：“總統將在未來幾天采取行動，應對與中共關聯的軟件給美國帶來的廣泛的安全風險。”

　　盡管美國總統將以何種方式采取怎樣的行動尚不得而知，但蓬佩奧的此番表態必然會加劇中國公司的憂慮。

　　TikTok在美國最近的經歷表明，不論美國政府針對中國公司的指控多么不切實際，只要它們還是中國企業，這些公司就會被貼上“紅色威脅”的標簽。此刻字節跳動公司正在爭取“最好的結果”，但美國政府的種種表態無不在暗示這家企業：把TikTok的美國業務轉讓給微軟或許是更合適的選擇。如是，蓬佩奧周日的表態無異于是在向美國潛在的收購者發出邀請，鼓勵它們去參加一次官方認可的對中國技術的“偷竊”行動。

　　華盛頓認為，北京若采取以牙還牙的報復行動，必然會充分顧忌如此行事對外國在華投資的影響。畢竟，美國在華投資對中國經濟的重要性明顯大于中國在美投資對美國經濟的重要性，況且當下中國在美投資正在日益萎縮。

　　此外，強迫中國公司把美國業務轉讓給美國企業也不會造成美國工作機會流失。

　　其實，美國政府對中國高科技企業的霸凌主要源自兩點。一方面，數據越來越成為新的財富源頭。另一方面就是以“美國優先”為前提的零和博弈的戰略思維。當下，國家間競爭越來越體現為國家間收集和應用數據的能力的比拼。至少在美國政府看來，就技術范疇而言，國家圍繞數據的競爭本質上就是一個非此即彼的抉擇：要么束手就擒，要么決一死戰。不需要胡蘿卜去促成什么合作，只要揮舞大棒就足夠了。

　　但中國絕對不會接受美國對中國技術企業的“圍獵”。如果美國政府執意要玩兒“砸了就搶”那一套，中國將有很多辦法讓美國為自己的行為負責到底。